The
'Second Preference' dilemma
The
prospect of casting a 'second preference' vote at next month's
mayoral elections means looking beyond a preferred (but outsider)
candidate to 'the men most likely to'.
The
'Supplementary Vote' is far from democratic (which is probably
appropriate in an election that will concentrate public power in one
pair of – probably masculine - hands) . But it does give the
chance to cast a second vote, and that makes it possible to cast an
honest first vote for a preferred 'outsider' candidate. If at the
first count they don't make it into the first two, then the second
vote will count toward the final result – so long as it happens to
be for one of the two who top the list when first preference votes
are counted.
The
current bookie's favourites are listed here.
Note that the LibDem's are now down to third in the betting – but
don't expect a correction to appear in Jon Roger's hype now. And
note that the chances of a female mayor are assessed at 66 to 1 !
According
to the same bookies, Geoff Gollop falls between the outsider and
favourite groups – embarrassingly behind Independent Spud Murphy,
his one time colleague on the council's Tory benches.
photo- the Post |
Geoff
won't be helped, either, by being seen at a Fishponds photo-op
alongside the much reviled Communities Secretary Eric Pickles, who
would (according to the Post) effectively be his line manager as
Mayor. I'm sure that command line isn't what was wanted even by the
13% of the electorate who want a mayor for Bristol. Eric may be one
of the few 'state grammar' plebs among the toffs in the Cabinet, but
even that wins him few admirers. He despises local government, as
his own record running Bradford shows.
Of
course Geoff already has a line manager in the shape of local Tory
leader Peter Abraham – the fellow who claims he can empty his own mind at will.
Peter should have been the warm up act for Geoff at the last
council meeting – but he spent so long indulging in an irrelevant
party political waffle (the kind that's being used to prove a mayor
will represent us better ) that there was no time for Geoff's
promised demolition of the case for Quality Bus Contracts. We'll
have to wait a bit longer for that, then.
Geoff
Gollop's mayoral website doesn't contain anything resembling a
manifesto – but among the lists of good (or bad) intentions, these
are the only firm commitments:
Education
Education
- Scale back the role of the LEA
- Introduce a schools olympics
- Extend the period for intake/acceptance
Green
Policy:
- Install solar panels on council house roofs
- Create and restore nature reserves
- Open a community fund to create more allotments
- Make Bristol physically green (I suspect that needs rephrasing!)
Transport:
- Go ahead with Bus Rapid Transit
- Scrap some bus-only lanes
- Continue the spread of a city-wide 20mph limit – but with exceptions
It
doesn't tell us much else, though, even for those obligations for which
any mayor must have a policy . Like how he'll face up to further
deep cuts to the budget (or pay for the wish-list above). Or what
he thinks about local (neighbourhood) democracy. Or anything about
the care services.
Generally,
Geoff Gollop is regarded as a decent, likeable man. But in the mayoral
elections the balance tips away from him as a potential second
preference vote.
There's
his poor placing in the 'likely mayors' list, that would make the
vote wasted.
There's
the broad theme in his platform of outsourcing essential services
There's
the failure to declare how he'd tackle the really big issues.
And
there's the company he keeps.
Right,
that's one ruled out.
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